First something of a disclaimer, back in college when I had something called free time and could engage my cinephile hobby. I would have seen every movie and performance on this list and could have given you complete breakdown of each category. But alas adult responsibility came along now I'm limited to occasional Netflix and anything playing on basic cable. So in full disclosure I really haven't seen many of the nominees, BUT that's OK. Because I suspect many of the actual Oscar voters have not either and at least I have the integrity to admit it.
The likelihood of winning is measured in 'Jack' units or how many Jack Daniels drinks you would need to consume to get the swagger of Jack Nicholson before appearing on stage ranging from 0 representing Just Happy To be Here, to 4 meaning grab your sunglasses, smirk, and the thank you list cause your headed to the podium baby! The 'Jack' units will appear in the ( ) along side nominee and each category ranked most to least likely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (4)
Sally Field, Lincoln (3.5)
Helen Hunt, The Sessions (2)
Amy Adams, The Master (1.5)
Jacki Hunt, Silver Linings Playbook (1)
Back in 1984, Sally Field became America's sweetheart for her now famous schtick after winning for Places In The Heart with 'You like me! You really, really like me!' Now its Anne Hathaway's turn with the 'Oh my Gosh, Oh My Gosh! Can't Believe I Won' schtick but probably falls short since Taylor Swift has pretty much patented the 'Oh My Gosh! Oh My Gosh! I can't believe I won....a People's Choice Award...for actually showing up....with the only other nominee being Chris Brown'
FUN BONUS FACT #1
Wait a minute you say, isn't Fields' famous line 'You Love Me! You really, Really Love Me!' Nope. Similar to Casablanca, where its most memorable line 'Play It Again Sam' was never actually said in the film and is an example of mis-remembering before the era of YouTube and 24 hour 'info-tainment' channels.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Argo (3.25)
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook (3.25)
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (3.25)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (1.5)
Christopher Waltz, Django Unchained (1.0)
This category features nominees who have all won before and is a toss-up between Arkin, DeNiro, and Jones that essentially foreshadows of who will win Best Picture. That is if you believe the theory that Oscars for acting ride the coattails of whatever will win Best Picture. My theory is what all three frontrunners have in common is they show up at awards looking like old curmudgeons about to tell some damn kids to get off their lawn. Thus the winner is whoever has the sour-puss face that launches a thousand internet memes. Based on Golden Globes, edge goes to Jones.
FUN BONUS FACT #2
Some people felt Hoffman could be a dark horse, but since his character is based on L.Ron Hubbard and the film essentially bears a not-so striking resemblance to Scientology with a not-so-flattering storyline. In response the
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (3.75)
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (3.5)
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (1)
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wilds (0)
Naomi Watts, The Impossible (0)
Basically this is a two horse race between Lawrence and Chastain for who will have the hottest, sweat inducing, 'Holy S**t look at her' outfit of the night. Early favorite is Lawrence whose red gown last year at made even gay men tell their straight friends 'Holy Mother of Pearl!'.
On a related note Lawrence and Chastain are also known as really good actresses and are also the favorites with Lawrence playing a crazy person versus Chastain who plays CIA analyst who helped hunt down Bin Laden. It's a toss-up but Lawrence wins by a bra size and gets to tell Kristen Stewart she can go ahead and have that MTV movie award and Nickelodeon's Kids Choice Award for best actress. Because her and Oscar will be over at the grown-up table discussing future projects.
FUN BONUS FACT #3
Most of the action beforehand will be on the red carpet but discerning viewers will be tuned to E! to count how many times actors pull Ryan Seacrest aside asking 'So dude, when Julianne Hough dumps you...I mean you guys break up for some reason, is it alright if I go out with her?'
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln (4)
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (2)
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables (1)
Denzel Washington, Flight (1)
Jacquin Phoenix, The Master (0)
Lewis' method acting is legendary, such as staying in character for the duration of filming. Lincoln was no different as Lewis reportedly went to strip clubs in his stove pipe hat asking the ladies if they had ever met his friends Jefferson and Jackson while making it 'rain' on stage. Though Lewis is sure lock there were solid other performances such as Joaquin Phoenix delivering his strongest performance since his last appearance on Dave Letterman. And Denzel Washington managing to put cocaine in a positive light while extolling the virtues of flying commercial jet airplanes while high. And Bradley Cooper will join the exclusive Hollywood club, one with the few actors who can go toe to toe with George Clooney when playing the game 'Wait, Did I or did I not sleep with her?'
FUN BONUS FACT #4
There always embarrassing sartorial moments when actresses have roughly the same dress. Such potential 'Bitch, stole my look' issues this year include Dakota Fanning and The Olsen Twins, Miley Cyrus and Susan Powter, along with Jennifer Lopez and a El Camino
BEST PICTURE
Argo (3.9999)
Lincoln (3.9998)
Silver Linings Playbook (2)
Zero Dark Thirty (1.5)
Les Miserables (1.5)
Django Unchained (1)
Life of Pi (0.001)
Beasts of the Southern Wilds (0.0001)
Amour (0)
Early prognosticators had Lincoln as the runaway favorite but like Geraldo Rivera in an brothel, climaxed way too soon. Argo was like Carly Rae Jepsen's sex appeal in that it may not register at first but slowly grows on you until suddenly you're like 'Wow!' Plus you have to admire Ben Affleck resurrecting his career like a modern day Lazarus from the tomb of Gigli. Silver Linings Playbook is the dark horse but being edgy and funny represents the antonym of typical tone deaf Oscar voter.
Several of the other films had some noticeable flaws.
- Zero Dark Thirty was bogged down by controversy around scenes of torture such as where Jessica Chastain CIA character is out in a hot desert but at no point is inclined to wear a bikini much to the consternation of male audiences.
- Les Miserables was accused of not quite living up to the stage production along with the historians challenging authenticity noting peasants in 17th century France were not generally given to break out in song philosophically reflecting their plight in life while contemplating broad societal implications of justice, religion, and love within French society, all while they were literally shoveling shit.
- Life of Pi was deemed a little too fanciful in that a tiger and boy in the same boat generally would not coexist together.
- Django Unchained was criticized for making light of slavery and racial tensions and the media nearly had a fainting spell when they learned a very important figure in cinema had very important objections. But upon learning it was only Spike Lee the controversy subsided but not enough to keep Leonardo DiCaprio's from getting snubbed. Apparently someone in Hollywood is still bitter over Leo being an arrogant prick in the late 90's
- Amour was foreign which meant no one saw it except 5 hipsters at an alternative theater in Austin, Texas and as of yet no one has been confirmed to have seen Beasts of the Southern Wilds.
So while the smart money says Hollywood will crown Lincoln because it always loves a good Historical, epic, biographical tale like Ghandi or Lawrence of Arabia. Enough old, uptight Oscar voters have passed on to allow something a little more stylish like Argo to sneak through and claim the prize.
FUN BONUS FACT #5
Look for past Oscar winner Cuba Gooding Jr. appearing in commercials to remind any winners who get their trophy by sheer, dumb, serendipitous luck that in 20 years when your career has crashed and you need cash. Fast. The helpful people at Cash for Gold can turn that Oscar Gold into cold hard cash! Show me the money indeed!
AND A SUPER BONUS FUN BONUS FACT
Everyone is expecting a cutting edge, comedy routine from host Seth MacFarlane but that probably wont happen since Hollywood and celebrities in general are humorless, lifeless, soulless egomaniacs who are incapable of laughing at themselves. And I do mean literally incapable because all the Botox and facelifts make it physically impossible to laugh. But more likely he'll join Dave Letterman, Jon Stewart, and Ellen DeGeneres forced to pull punches and hold back resulting in a disappointing act. And a somewhat partly funny Seth MacFarlane is lot like a straight thinking, sober Amanda Bynes. Just not that fun.
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