By Jason Neal
WARNING: The following has been satirized for your protection
First
something of a disclaimer, back in college when I had something called
free time and could engage my cinephile hobby. I would have seen every
movie and performance on this list and could have given you complete
breakdown of each category. But alas adult responsibility came along
now I'm limited to occasional Netflix and anything playing on basic
cable. So in full disclosure I really haven't many of the nominees, BUT
that's OK. Because I suspect many of the actual Oscar voters have not
either and at least I have the integrity to admit it.
The
likelihood of winning is measured in 'Jack' units or how many Jack
Daniels drinks would you would need to get the swagger of Jack
Nicholson before appearing on stage ranging from 0 representing just
Happy To be there, to 4 meaning grab your sunglasses, smirk, and the
thank you list cause your headed to the podium! The 'Jack' units will
appear in the ( ) along side nominee and each category ranked most to
least likely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Berenice Bejo, The Artist (3.5)
Octavia Spencer, The Help (3)
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs (2)
Jessica Chastain, The Help (1)
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids (1)
Personally
I would give it to McCarthy but since Oscar voters have zero sense of
humor so rule her out. Jessica Chastain's 'chestacular' performance
will get her a Mr.Skin.com nod but sadly not here. Janet McTeer got
overshadowed by Glenn Close. So we're left with Spencer and Bejo. Best
Supporting Actress tends to favor the breakout role and Spencer would
have had it locked had it not been for the late surge of The Artist so
the Oscar goes to Bejo.
FUN OSCAR FACT #1: If
you want to watch an actor squirm, find one whose career happened only
because they are the child of some other famous actor, and ask this
question: 'So Kate Hudson (or insert your own actress) now really tell
us....assuming you weren't Goldie Hawn's daughter (or insert famous
parent)...which of the following would you be doing.... working at a
Wal-Mart or Denny's?'
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners (4)
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn (3)
Johan Hill, Moneyball (3)
Nick Nolte, Warrior (2)
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (1)
Now
personally my vote would to go von Sydow to make up for the Oscar snub
two decades ago with the classic beer comedy Strange Brew. Nolte is
out because frankly the Academy is afraid of what a acceptance speech
on LSD laced with Crystal Meth would look like. Branagh is like the
Kate Winslet of male actors, great performances but always overshadowed
by some one-trick pony. Comes down to Plummer and Hill and since this
category always tends to go to older actors as sort of quasi lifetime
achievement award, your winner is Plummer.
FUN OSCAR FACT #2: Here's
a phrase, you'll never, EVER hear at the Oscars acceptance ceremony:
'Wow thanks but really I'm just some guy playing make believe.
Seriously 4 year olds can do this so there's no need for all the hoopla
and pageantry. I'm donating this statuette to be melted down so
the proceeds from the gold given to starving children in Haiti.'
BEST ACTRESS:
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn (3.75)
Violet Davis, The Help (3.75)
Glenn Close, Albert Notts (2.5)
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (2)
Rooney Mara, Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (0)
Scratch
Rooney Mara since watching the rape scene in Dragon Tattoo for voters
was probably like sitting through Lindsay Lohan reciting the alphabet
in a sobriety checkpoint stop, painful. Glenn Close gave a great
gender-bending performance but the film required voters to actually
think so she strikes out again. Streep nomination too controversial
since Brits take offense to an American playing a Brit better than a
Brit playing a Brit, so to avoid an international incident she's out.
Leaves photo finish between Davis and Williams which very similar to
the choice facing George Clooney whether to have the lobster or the
crack crab when dining in the South of France while entertaining some
hot, 'model turned actress' girlfriend.
FUN OSCAR FACT #3: On the red carpet, keep your eye out for when someone asks Kristen Stewart 'Why do you keep giving me that awkward look?'
BEST ACTOR:
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy (3.5)
Brad Pitt, Moneyball (3)
George Clooney, Descendents and because he's George fucking Clooney
Jean Desjardins, Warrior (0)
Denian Bichiri, Better Life (0)
Best
actor usually is all about star power so Desjardins and Bichiri are
out at the start. Now Clooney already got a statue for his performance
in Gets More Ass than The Driver's Seat of a Rental Car Syriana so probably won't get a second one this year. Moneyball focuses
on the Oakland A's who actually never won anything with the moneyball
system so neither will Brad Pitt. Thus your winner is Gary Oldman for The Professional urr...Harry Potter urr...The Dark Knight..urr..
Tinker Tailor, something or other. Oldman basically is like the Honey
Badger of Hollywood: 'The honey badger is a bad ass. He just takes
what we he wants because the honey badger don't care, the honey badger
don't give a s...'
FUN OSCAR FACT #4: If
Pitt should win, best part of Oscar night will be the camera panning
to Jennifer Aniston as she tries to hide the scorn and thinks of her
next entry in her 'Burn Book'
BEST PICTURE (ranked from least to most in 'Jack' units):
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
- Title also describes what its like living with a toddler, but the
post 9-11 flick overloads on sentimentality. Though Oscars like
sentimentality this movie had enough to give Diabetic insulin shock (0)
Tree of Life - Terrence Malick's spiritual piece undone by the fact no one knows what the hell is going on during the film. (0)
Midnight In Paris -
First time in long time Woody Allen appears in category but film only
seen by NYU Film students and by the .0000003% of American movie goers
who actually think Woody Allen films are funny (1)
The Descendants -
Alexander Payne best known as a director who can perfectly balance
comedy with emotionally serious material. But it's the comedy part of
the equation that rules out Payne..again... since Oscar voters are SOOO
serious. (2)
The Help - The first Oscar contender where plot revolves going to the bathroom (2.5)
Moneyball
- In real life being a statistician will get you a good job, but in
Hollywood it doesn't get you golden prize or the hot chick (2.5)
Hugo - It's sort of like if Martin Scorsese directed a Pixar feature. Oh wait it is like Martin Scorsese directed a Pixar movie (3)
Warhorse -
Two months ago I would have said this as the Best Picture, but if
you're Steven Spielberg you're getting that queasy feeling that 1999 is
about to happen all over again. You know where another war masterpiece
Saving Private Ryan got eclipsed by a late surging indie flick Shakespeare In Love thanks to that undeserving hack Gwyneth (BLECCH) Paltrow..because now here comes....(3.5)
The Artist
- A silent movie that goes old school but wins votes because its
storyline is based on something extremely rare in Hollywood these
days...an original idea. Who knew? (4)
FUN BONUS: Since The Artist is a silent movie, I'm going to do an impression of the average West Virginia moviegoer's reaction to seeing it theaters:
'Hey
Thelma Ray! Better move git yer beehind up and talk the manager I
think something wrong 'cause the sound aint workin'. And shoot somethin
wrong with the color too. It's black and white. And why they all
dancin? When they gonna start blowing shit up?'