First
something of a disclaimer, back in college when I had something called
free time and could engage my cinephile hobby. I would have seen every
movie and performance on this list and could have given you complete
breakdown of each category. But alas adult responsibility came along now
I'm limited to occasional Netflix and anything playing on basic cable.
So in full disclosure I really haven't seen many of the nominees, BUT
that's OK. Because I suspect many of the actual Oscar voters have not
either and at least I have the integrity to admit it.
The likelihood of winning is measured in 'Jack' units or how many Jack Daniels drinks you would need to consume to get the swagger of Jack Nicholson before appearing on stage ranging from 0 representing Just Happy To be Here, to 4 meaning grab your sunglasses, smirk, and the thank you list cause your headed to the podium baby! The 'Jack' units will appear in the ( ) along side nominee and each category ranked most to least likely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o 12 Years a Slave (3.5)
Jennifer Lawrence American Hustle (3.5)
Julia Roberts August: Osage County (1)
Sally Hawkins Blue Jasmine (0)
June Squibb, Nebraska (0)
This category is basically two person horserace between Nyong'o and Lawrence. Not over who takes home the statue but who do you want to be your imaginary BFF in a battle of who can out-cute one another and be the aww..shucks she's just so adorable she's America's sweetheart. Key moment will be when Lawrence admits she just let out a fart on the red carpet and the entertainment media eats up because they just love her candor. How will Nyong'o counter: Will she admit she just blew up the bathroom after eating Taco Bell? When she is in the shower and has to pee, she just let's it go?
Fun Bonus Fact #1: How big is the Oscar night in LA? The phrase 'Do you know who I'am' gets uttered most on this night in any given year than on any other day
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (4)
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle (1.5)
Michael Fassbender 12 Years a Slave (1)
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips (1)
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street (0)
Pretty much the clear winner here is Leto. Not for the suburb performance in Dallas Buyer's Club, but for dating Lupita Nyong'o because when you're dating Lupita Nyong'o you pretty much win at life. At this point even Bradley Cooper will have to bow down saying 'Well played, sir, well played indeed'. Rest are just there to follow George Clooney and learn from the master.
Fun Bonus Fact #2: Long forgotten Sheen son Emilio Estevez will actually be part of the ceremonies. He'll be working the night shift cashier at the Shell gas station down the street from the Auditorium
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (3.5)
Amy Adams, American Hustle (1)
Sandra Bullock, Gravity (0)
Judi Dench, Philomena (0)
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (0)
The biggest surprise coming out of Blue Jasmine was 'Holy Shit!, that's Andrew Dice Clay?' The second biggest surprise was 'Holy Shit! Louis CK is a serious actor!?' So it was easy to overlook Blanchett's performance but she deserves the statue for being able to make Woody Allen seem only slightly less creepy. Of course should be no surprise since Blanchett demonstrates more acting range reading from a phone book than most young actresses who would sleep outside and not shower for weeks when trying to play the same role of a rich socialite descending into homelessness.
BEST ACTOR
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club (3)
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave (2.5)
Bruce Dern, Nebraska (2)
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (1)
Christian Bale, American Hustle (0)
And after a 20 year career and four Oscar nominations, Leonardo DiCaprio finally hits paydirt....HAHAHA...Just Kidding!
At this point I think the Academy voters just like to fuck with him, sort of the way Lucy dangles that football in front of Charlie Brown. Nah the real competition centers on three common archetypes in a acting category: First, the breakthrough of pretty boy/action/rom-com star to SERIOUS actor this year filled by McConaughey who has come a long way from playing naked bongo in his Texas mansion. Second is the blazing newcomer, this year filled by Ejiofor, despite being a rookie laid down some serious gravitas. Lastly, the sentimental favorite whom the Academy wants to recognize before he dies this year filled by of Bruce Dern who always seems cast as the old, cranky guy. Tough call as is anyone's race but edge has to go to McConaughey whose brilliant performance in the TV series True Detective has to be getting notice by Oscar voters. Assuming of course the Hollywood retirement homes have HBO.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity (3.5)
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (2.5)
David O. Russell, American Hustle (1)
Alexander Payne, Nebraska (0.5)
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street (0)
Normally when people throw up in theaters it's either because of a food borne illness at the concession stand or typical response to a Jennifer Lopez movie. But Alfonso Cuaron's film about astronauts getting in lost in space which was filmed in long, panoramic sequences was so life like that people were getting motion sickness. Also notable for Cauron's film is a rare George Clooney flick that does not involve him banging somebody. Martin Scorsese is like the venerable old uncle you always have to acknowledge at the dinner table at Thanksgiving. He could make a airplane safety instructional video and he would get nominated.
BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave (3)
American Hustle (2.5)
Gravity (1)
Dallas Buyers Club (1)
Captain Phillips / Nebraska / The Wolf of Wall Street (1)
Her / Philomena (0)
Statistical guru Nate Slver who has accurately within 0.5% correctly predicted the past two Presidential elections recently provided a statistical analysis on Best Picture winners in Vanity Fair based on Internet Movie Database. The Top 5 IMDB tags for a best picture winner were 1) Blockbuster (54.7%) 2) Murder (44.2%), 3) Based on Novel (40.7%), 4) Title Spoken by Character (40.7%), 5) Contains a Love and/or Friendship Story (39.5%)
If we use process of elimination we rule out Her, Nebraska, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street because they do not contain any of the five elements. Next up we rule out those only meeting one criteria, Gravity (Blockbuster) and Dallas Buyers Club (love/Friendship). Now that leaves with three movies left. Captain Phillips was a blockbuster and based on a novel giving meeting two of the categories, while American Hustle filled in three categories (Blockbuster, Murder, and has a love story). It also has Jennifer Lawrence in a nighty and Amy Adams looking hot which normally....
....My God (wipes sweat from brow) would be enough for anyone to merit Best Picture along with holy hell is it getting hot in here.
But 12 Years a Slave manages check off all five categories thus your highest probability to take home Best Picture
Bonus Fun Fact #3: IMDB was originally created in the late 80's by British computer geek and called it 'Those Eyes' so he and fellow geeks could track the hot actresses they liked. But it a was private database until they were persuaded to release it on the web in 1993 when one of them got married and grew tired of his wife asking 'Where have I seen that actor before? C'mon you oughta know. He was that movie with that guy who does that thing....oh it's on the tip of my tongue.
The likelihood of winning is measured in 'Jack' units or how many Jack Daniels drinks you would need to consume to get the swagger of Jack Nicholson before appearing on stage ranging from 0 representing Just Happy To be Here, to 4 meaning grab your sunglasses, smirk, and the thank you list cause your headed to the podium baby! The 'Jack' units will appear in the ( ) along side nominee and each category ranked most to least likely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o 12 Years a Slave (3.5)
Jennifer Lawrence American Hustle (3.5)
Julia Roberts August: Osage County (1)
Sally Hawkins Blue Jasmine (0)
June Squibb, Nebraska (0)
This category is basically two person horserace between Nyong'o and Lawrence. Not over who takes home the statue but who do you want to be your imaginary BFF in a battle of who can out-cute one another and be the aww..shucks she's just so adorable she's America's sweetheart. Key moment will be when Lawrence admits she just let out a fart on the red carpet and the entertainment media eats up because they just love her candor. How will Nyong'o counter: Will she admit she just blew up the bathroom after eating Taco Bell? When she is in the shower and has to pee, she just let's it go?
Fun Bonus Fact #1: How big is the Oscar night in LA? The phrase 'Do you know who I'am' gets uttered most on this night in any given year than on any other day
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (4)
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle (1.5)
Michael Fassbender 12 Years a Slave (1)
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips (1)
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street (0)
Pretty much the clear winner here is Leto. Not for the suburb performance in Dallas Buyer's Club, but for dating Lupita Nyong'o because when you're dating Lupita Nyong'o you pretty much win at life. At this point even Bradley Cooper will have to bow down saying 'Well played, sir, well played indeed'. Rest are just there to follow George Clooney and learn from the master.
Fun Bonus Fact #2: Long forgotten Sheen son Emilio Estevez will actually be part of the ceremonies. He'll be working the night shift cashier at the Shell gas station down the street from the Auditorium
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (3.5)
Amy Adams, American Hustle (1)
Sandra Bullock, Gravity (0)
Judi Dench, Philomena (0)
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County (0)
The biggest surprise coming out of Blue Jasmine was 'Holy Shit!, that's Andrew Dice Clay?' The second biggest surprise was 'Holy Shit! Louis CK is a serious actor!?' So it was easy to overlook Blanchett's performance but she deserves the statue for being able to make Woody Allen seem only slightly less creepy. Of course should be no surprise since Blanchett demonstrates more acting range reading from a phone book than most young actresses who would sleep outside and not shower for weeks when trying to play the same role of a rich socialite descending into homelessness.
BEST ACTOR
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club (3)
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave (2.5)
Bruce Dern, Nebraska (2)
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (1)
Christian Bale, American Hustle (0)
And after a 20 year career and four Oscar nominations, Leonardo DiCaprio finally hits paydirt....HAHAHA...Just Kidding!
At this point I think the Academy voters just like to fuck with him, sort of the way Lucy dangles that football in front of Charlie Brown. Nah the real competition centers on three common archetypes in a acting category: First, the breakthrough of pretty boy/action/rom-com star to SERIOUS actor this year filled by McConaughey who has come a long way from playing naked bongo in his Texas mansion. Second is the blazing newcomer, this year filled by Ejiofor, despite being a rookie laid down some serious gravitas. Lastly, the sentimental favorite whom the Academy wants to recognize before he dies this year filled by of Bruce Dern who always seems cast as the old, cranky guy. Tough call as is anyone's race but edge has to go to McConaughey whose brilliant performance in the TV series True Detective has to be getting notice by Oscar voters. Assuming of course the Hollywood retirement homes have HBO.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity (3.5)
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (2.5)
David O. Russell, American Hustle (1)
Alexander Payne, Nebraska (0.5)
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street (0)
Normally when people throw up in theaters it's either because of a food borne illness at the concession stand or typical response to a Jennifer Lopez movie. But Alfonso Cuaron's film about astronauts getting in lost in space which was filmed in long, panoramic sequences was so life like that people were getting motion sickness. Also notable for Cauron's film is a rare George Clooney flick that does not involve him banging somebody. Martin Scorsese is like the venerable old uncle you always have to acknowledge at the dinner table at Thanksgiving. He could make a airplane safety instructional video and he would get nominated.
BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave (3)
American Hustle (2.5)
Gravity (1)
Dallas Buyers Club (1)
Captain Phillips / Nebraska / The Wolf of Wall Street (1)
Her / Philomena (0)
Statistical guru Nate Slver who has accurately within 0.5% correctly predicted the past two Presidential elections recently provided a statistical analysis on Best Picture winners in Vanity Fair based on Internet Movie Database. The Top 5 IMDB tags for a best picture winner were 1) Blockbuster (54.7%) 2) Murder (44.2%), 3) Based on Novel (40.7%), 4) Title Spoken by Character (40.7%), 5) Contains a Love and/or Friendship Story (39.5%)
If we use process of elimination we rule out Her, Nebraska, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street because they do not contain any of the five elements. Next up we rule out those only meeting one criteria, Gravity (Blockbuster) and Dallas Buyers Club (love/Friendship). Now that leaves with three movies left. Captain Phillips was a blockbuster and based on a novel giving meeting two of the categories, while American Hustle filled in three categories (Blockbuster, Murder, and has a love story). It also has Jennifer Lawrence in a nighty and Amy Adams looking hot which normally....
....My God (wipes sweat from brow) would be enough for anyone to merit Best Picture along with holy hell is it getting hot in here.
But 12 Years a Slave manages check off all five categories thus your highest probability to take home Best Picture
Bonus Fun Fact #3: IMDB was originally created in the late 80's by British computer geek and called it 'Those Eyes' so he and fellow geeks could track the hot actresses they liked. But it a was private database until they were persuaded to release it on the web in 1993 when one of them got married and grew tired of his wife asking 'Where have I seen that actor before? C'mon you oughta know. He was that movie with that guy who does that thing....oh it's on the tip of my tongue.
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